Tories in lead in constituency polls

The Conservative Party have come out on top in constituency polls conducted over the last term.

The Conservatives will win in nearly 32 of the 50 constituency seats, a preliminary Welman-Gulls poll released today has shown. If the polls are correct, the party would see an increase of nearly 23 from its nine current constituency seats, with major gains from the Lib Dems and the Green Party.

Cumbria, a constituency the Conservatives are predicted to gain.

The self proclaimed “broad church” right wing party would hold all of the seats in its stronghold of the East Midlands (except Nottinghamshire, which the Loyalists are predicted to take back, however as it is likely they will not run, it would then go to the Tories) while making considerable gains in the South (holding all but two seats) and a surprising rise in Scotland, holding half of the nation’s four constituency seats.

Of the other parties, Labour and the Greens are both predicted high seat counts, with seven each, and the Liberal parties are both only predicted two. The Libertarians also see a drop, keeping hold of just one seat in the West Midlands. In Wales, the picture hasn’t changed, with Plaid Cymru holding on to all the constituencies in the country.

The Greens are predicted to gain Birmingham.

However, it should be noted that these polls don’t necessarily reflect what the actual outcome will be. These simply show polls based on term-time activity. The polls could therefore change based on how active candidates are. Furthermore, these polls do not account for the regional list seats, which may even out the balance to better match the National Polling.

When approached on the matter, Conservative Deputy Leader eelsemaj99 said:

“I am very pleased by this polling and excited by the results, it shows that we have many competitive seats and puts us in a good position to pick up seats at the next election.”


The Liberal Democrat Deputy Leader throwawayravenclaw also responded to the polls saying:

“[The Liberal Democrats] have faith that a combined effort from the Traffic Light Coalition will be able to produce a good result for the Liberal Democrats and our partners.”

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This of course presents an interesting concept of a potential TLC “pact” going into the election, with the left-wing bloc working together to provide a unified force against the Conservatives. This would most likely involve a series of mutual endorsements and would increase the TLC’s ability to win seats (with the vote share of three parties per constituencies, rather than one). This could mean that they can gain seats where the right vote is split.

In all, the polls show a rocky start to the election for many parties, but those affected have shown they aren’t standing down from the fight and still see a good result for themselves in the end.

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