It was the spring of 2017. The Conservatives had just achieved a historic win in General Election 7, ousting years of left wing governance, and in its place forming a Conservative electoral legacy that would last years. From General Election 7 to 13, the Conservatives had cemented a polling and parliamentary advantage over all of their rivals. At some points it grew larger, such as during the first Blurple government. At other points, such as right after the Grand Coalition, it became smaller. But the lead was always there. For almost half of the time since General Election 1, the Conservatives have led in the polls and in the number of MPs.
Until now.
For weeks, it had appeared that Labour was nipping at the Conservatives’ heels. After recovering from a brutal Sunrise government that stagnated their polling, Labour had struck back with high activity and closed the gap to a mere 3 percentage points, and this week, through delivering the striking blow of a Vote of No Confidence, Labour had accomplished what no left wing party since General Election 6 had done: surpass the Tories in public opinion polls. Such a result has sent shockwaves through the political class in Westminster, creating a new dynamic where two parties seriously vye for the goal of winning a plurality of seats, rather than the simple assumption of a Tory plurality consistently prevailing.
As the coalition formation period begins, another party has great cause to celebrate. In the middle of the last term, the LPUK had found itself licking its wounds. Its polling had dropped drastically, down to a mere 12 percent, and there were serious murmurs about whether the party could simply manage to stagnate, rather than keep declining. However, through an influx of activity on debating and new legislation, the party found itself on the upper hand, gaining its highest ever result in General Election 13, and cementing its gains throughout the term. As the polls from April 9-16 were released, they displayed record levels of support, and showed the LPUK coming within striking distance of the 20 percent range in polling where Labour and the Conservatives currently reside.
However, these major gains for Labour and the LPUK have come at a cost. The Conservatives who, at their height, held more than 40 seats, have now found themselves in the peculiar position of being second in a poll. Having had a generally negative trendline since the beginning of the term, the Tories now found that, rather than simply having a shrinking lead over Labour, it is Labour who have a lead over them. As the Conservative membership votes in the following days over who their next leader will be, one thing is certain. That new leader, following in the footsteps of Milli, must quickly find a way to reinvigorate the Conservatives, or face the prospect of major electoral consequences come August.
Model Telegraph 