A nationwide exit poll, conducted by the Telegraph in conjunction with Yougov, shows a parliament fractured, with the LPUK and Solidarity emerging as the two largest parties, while the Conservatives, Labour and the Liberal Democrats suffer crushing defeats.
The LPUK will be the largest party in the next parliament, holding 38 seats, a gain of 6 from their notional results last election. This gain is caused by an unprecedented surge across constituency seats, taking 11 seats from the Tories, Labour and Lib Dems. The party’s pole position leaves them in the driving seat for government formation and makes Friedmanite19 the likely candidate to be Britain’s next Prime Minister.
The rise of Solidarity this term has been stunning and yet few could quite have expected this result. Solidarity will come second, with 30 seats, a gain of 20 from their notional results last election. The surge comes almost entirely from regional lists, with the party taking close to a majority of the list seats in a number of regions. This result, coupled with a collapse in Labour support, marks Solidarity as the new dominant party of the left. Solidarity will also win two constituencies, Northern Ireland and Mancs City and South, while it will lose the seat of Lancs South and its leader motelblinds will fail in his attempt to take the seat of Cheshire.
The Conservatives have been decimated according to this result, falling 21 seats from their notional results last election to 26. This is the first election in years to see the Conservatives not in top spot and will likely bring into question the leadership of Padanub. His party sees a spate of constituencies taken by the LPUK, including Kent, Lincolnshire and Cheshire, while the LoTO will lose his battle in West Yorkshire.
The governing Labour party will suffer a meltdown result on par with the Irish Labour Party’s collapse in 2016, with Labour seeing its MPs halved from 34 notional seats at dissolution to just 17 now. Labour are left holding just three constituencies: Essex, North London and Central London. The PM will lose in Clydeside to the LPUK, and will likely find their position untenable given the wipeout suffered by her party on a national scale. Make no mistake, Labour is a party in a death spiral based on these results.
An impressive campaign sees Coalition! take fifth position, edging out the Lib Dems, with C! set to take 14 seats. The party sees major constituency wins in London, East Midlands and the Southeast as well as strong results on the list. This result puts C! in the valuable position of potential kingmaker in a divided Commons,
The Liberal Democrats follow their traditional “Big Three” counterparts in having a deeply disappointing election, arriving in 6th place with just 12 seats, a fall of 11. Questions over electoral strategy and the decision to run just 16 candidates will be asked, as the party faces into a period of deep soul-searching.
The Progressive Workers Party have achieved a result they will be very proud of, taking 9 seats, tripling their notional result from last time out of 3. Impressive campaign showings see them take Cambridgeshire as well as a number of lists in several highly targeted regions.
In a good night for the smaller groupings, the regionalist WNP will take 2 seats on Welsh list, while TIG will win a seat in the Northeast list as will pro-european Voices For Europe in East England.
6 seats have been marked as tossups. They have been given to the party we view as most likely to win them, however these seats will likely be very close. These include Clydeside, a tossup between the LPUK and Labour, Upper Severn, a tossup between the LPUK and Conservatives, North and Mid Wales, a tossup between the LPUK and Solidarity as well as East London, a tossup between C! and Labour.
This parliament will be more fractured than at any point in modern British history, with 10 groupings holding parliamentary representation. The path to coalition is narrow, with the only realistic options for majority government at this moment in time appearing to be the LPUK and Conservatives in combination with Coalition! or the Lib Dems or both. These results make clear that Britain may well be facing into 6 months of deep political uncertainty. They also drive home a realignment in British politics, with the LPUK, Solidarity and C! overtaking their traditional counterparts on the right, left and centre of British politics.