Author: threecommasclubmp

Exclusive polling received by the Telegraph tell a story of a seemingly mixed bag for all parties.

Northumbria

Greens	0.52
Labour	26.70
Liberal Democrats	5.96
Conservatives	29.59
LPUK	24.43
LL	2.45
TPM	5.32
DRF	5.04

Northumbria a seat where the Conservatives held off a combative campaign from Labour and the LPUK but it looks like danger awaits once more. With Labour trailing 3 points and the LPUK 5, the Conservatives might be able to hold off Labour. However, if Labour manage to secure a endorsement from TPM and the Conservatives don’t manage one from the LPUK this seat could be in danger.

Buckinghamshire

Greens	0.39
Labour	11.13
Liberal Democrats	5.60
Conservatives	34.28
LPUK	40.22
LL	1.17
TPM	2.44
DRF	4.77

Buckinghamshire is a constituency where the LPUK deputy leader Seimer beat out the Conservatives and it looks like history might just repeat itself. With a weak Labour and LD, the LPUK hold a commanding 6 point lead over the Tories, victory for the Conservatives seems out of their grasp even with with support from the their Liberal friends. The voters here seem to be supporting the successful VONC brought by LPUK leader Friedmanite19 which has toppled the Conservative-LD government.

Nottinghamshire

Greens	0.68
Labour	37.80
Liberal Democrats	8.10
Conservatives	27.32
LPUK	14.98
LL	2.32
TPM	3.41
DRF	5.36

The Labour stronghold continues to hold firm with an impassible lead the Conservatives have been unable to make inroads to capturing this safe Labour seat. Unless they secure the support of the LPUK and the LD the Conservatives will not be able to overcome Labour and with relations strained no deal can be assured.

West London

Greens	0.64
Labour	27.89
Liberal Democrats	10.31
Conservatives	29.71
LPUK	12.19
LL	1.15
TPM	2.65
DRF	15.46

Last election in the battle between the DRF and the Tories, with endorsements the DRF leader ZanyDraco were able to dominate the race. If such a deal were to hold the DRF could fine for another victory but if one of their endorsements go the way of the the Tories or Labour seeing their polling decide to run all bets would be off and the DRF would be in for a beating.

Bedfordshire and Hertfordshire

Greens	0.41
Labour	15.41
Liberal Democrats	14.97
Conservatives	33.36
LPUK	25.43
LL	1.35
TPM	3.29
DRF	6.05

The Liberal Democrats won this seat with a Labour endorsement in the face of a divided Conservative and LPUK. This time even if both the Tories and the LPUK run it will be close race for the Democrats and if the LPUK and Conservatives manage to reach then their doom seems to be spelled. It seems from this poll that the biggest loser of the VONC might be the Liberal Democrats and not the Tories.

Glamorgan and Gwent

Greens	0.54
Labour	43.37
Liberal Democrats	13.23
Conservatives	14.62
LPUK	15.99
LL	5.42
TPM	2.14
DRF	4.69

Once again Labour polling looks strong in their safe seats. In Labour country and home of heavy weight secretary-salami, the collapse of the government seems to have embolden Labour while cutting into Conservative support. A divided and poor polling will mean that Glamorgan and Gweent will be a lock-in for the party. Polling reveals a divided front for the parties with strong showing by both parties suggesting that for a future election it might be endorsements that play a end up playing the deciding factor in tipping key races.

What do a former school teacher, Rand Paul, and mediocre fish and chips chef have in common? They are just a few of the many faces running to be the next leader of the Conservative Party. The Conservative and Unionist Party has always been a monolith of British politics, holding sway at nearly every point in our nation’s history. However, in the coming days, the party will be tested like never before. The Tory-led government is facing a vote of no confidence with the entire opposition bench accusing the government of misleading Parliament and gross incompetence. Inside the party itself, things are not looking much better with PM Milli resigning and leaving the party without a central figure to lead. Whoever is elected will have big shoes to fill and the tremendous job of restoring the Conservatives back to their former glory. Today I sit down with some of the candidates in the race to see who just might be crowned leader of the Party and potentially win the keys to Number 10.

First, we have what many would call the front runner, the current Foreign Secretary and Deputy Leader, model-willem. When I sat down with Willem in his office in Westminster, he spoke with a determined tone despite being clearly exhausted with the business of Parliament. With an established position of leadership and a wide breadth of experience, it’s not hard to see why he’s currently polling ahead of the pack. However, Willem was recently at the heart of the Iran controversy that directly sparked the VONC. When questioned on his actions hit to his reputation he fired back responding “[I] and my party doesn’t agree with the concerns laid out specifically against me and we know that we acted in the best way possible.” An iron-willed stance that echoed the party line and the reasoning supported by most Consertative MPs.

Questioned about what ailed the party, Willem told me that the shift from a right-wing Tory-led government to the more centrist government was a cause for confusion as it left voters confused about what the party stood for and what the public was voting for. An interesting idea and perhaps a sign of even a bit of nostalgia in the party itself and Willem also expressed the need to reach out to other parties like the LPUK while maintaining their already good relations with Liberal Democrats. It seemed like under a Willem premiership more change would follow as she also hinted as the creating of internal party committees to give more voice to backbenchers.

When questioned about his temper and distractions, an criticism lobbied by his opponent Yukub. Willem has responded that his so temper to him was more of a passion and his mistakes were a learning opportunity. . When asked about the government failure in Wales, Willem blamed on his tendency to maybe trust people too much and try to see in the good in them. Finally when I pressed him on members picking between him and Yukub should pick him because of his greater experience in higher positions and ability work with other parties. Though certainly a formidable candidate, worries over his recent performance as Foreign Secretary and the collapse of his government in Wales could have some Tory insider taking a second at Willem.

The situation in Wales showed me that I can trust people a lot, maybe a bit too much and I always see the good in people. Those are important qualities for a leader in my opinion. Without those a leader gets locked up in his own bubble without letting people in and play their parts.

Model-Willem

Our second candidate is a rising star within the Party, none other than BrexitGlory. The political machine was full of energy and passion as we sat down in a local pub for the interview. Despite him being relativity young, his head was already a jungle of grey hair, a sign of stress to come if elected leader no doubt. BrexitGlory emphasized his activity in the commons and new approach as the solution to the party’s current dilemmas. His experience or lack thereof was not a concern in these trying times. He focused instead on his policy of opening up political connections across the spectrum, plans for reform, and increased technology. However when questioned about his statement expressing admiring Enoch Powell which has attracted criticism from those both in and outside of the Party-he dismissed the claims exclaiming: “What a boring question.”

What a boring question. People are free to select quotes out of context, that is their freedom, I can’t stop that!

BrexitGlory

His message to the Party was one of bringing new blood to the halls of CCHQ, highlighting his experience in getting backbenchers active and involved during his tenure as Secretary of Transport. I then asked him about his background which revealed that he worked in IT working his way up and the fact he could rip an apple in two with his bare hands.  As for his personal life, he was quick to tell me it was pretty boring. No worries, I reassured him not all of us can be Casanovas. 

The third candidate I had the pleasure of interviewing is an even newer face to the political arena /u/MerriluPutrid. I flew to her home in Birmingham where I had the pleasure of enjoying some freshly brewed tea and homemade biscuits. She told me that she previously ran a fish and chips shop but the food was just okay. Briefly serving as an MP the last term, her real start came when she elected MP for West Midlands the last election. A bit of curiosity she might be a bit of unknown to members of her own party and certainly to the wider political world. When asked what prompted her to run, she conveyed the need for a fresh perspective against what she saw as an increasingly radical Labour. 

My message to my party is that the way things are going at the moment, we may be sitting on the opposition benches soon. We need a fresh face who will help rally the British people towards the Conservative cause and work to mend our relations with smaller parties, while still not surrendering our core values.

MerrilyPutrid

Putrid sang a song of broad unity even as Westminster increasingly becomes more partisan. When asked why someone so new should be trusted with what may the keys to Number 10, she replied a fresh slate is what the party and the country united. The rest of the party and opposition had no reason to hate her, something that cannot be said about every candidate in the race. Though scant on implementable policy, she was in a position to be an alternative pick for those fed with the old guard. As I left Birmingham, I left with a portrait of a fresh-faced and strongly centrist candidate, perhaps the first of the Tory new guard stepping into greater power.

The next candidate I met was paul_rand, the Secretary of State for education. I interviewed on the eve of his manifesto release which was the longest of any candidates. What stood out to me the most was the personal promise of activity and plan for strengthening the Tory hold over devolved assembles a unique aspect of his manifesto.  When asked about his stance on the devolution debate he signaled that he felt that the current arrangement was fine but would like to formalize the transfers of power.

As for his detractors, especially in the LPUK he pointed to his manifesto of his broad-church ideals and willingness to across the aisle. Spoken like a man who had spent much time as a civil servant as Rand serviced in the civil service for HMRC in northern England. As for his final message to his party and the backbenchers he issued a call to arms.

As for my message for my own party and backbenchers, I am issuing a call to arms, I want everyone in this party to know that they have a place under my leadership, they serve a vital role and they will be needed in the fight we must wage to put our vision to the people.

Rand

The final candidate I interviewed was Yukub a old time member of the party and highly regarded in his right. For an seasoned politician, I dove straight into questioning. When asked why newer members should trust him, he responded saying that as a old face he was similar, trusted and with a long and proven track record. I then pivoted to what work he could point recently, given that opponent BrexitGlory had made his tremendous activity in the Commons a tenet of his campaign. Yukub discussed that his work was behind the scenes in writing legislation and in the press .

Yukub was quick to have me turn to his colleagues in the party who he assured would support his record and work. To be fair, many senior members of the party including several former Prime Ministers was endorsed Yukub. His message to the party was about concern about a dangerous Labour Party knocking at the door and not just him but the entire party needed to have a joint effort to maintain power and the trust of the people. In the days since he announced his candidacy, support has been building with Yukub securing many big name endorsements and the press shifting to call him the front-runner. It just might that his old dog can learn some new tricks.

For long, we have dominated the political scene. But we cannot afford to become complacent Labour are banging on the gates; they have their eyes on the prize — Number 10, Downing Street. . For those of us who where here, only some years ago, to experience the then left-wing hegemony, it is an particularly real and unpalatable thought. The country, more than ever, depends on us securing our position and holding Labour at bay. We must stand strong, stand together. I hope to have your confidence, and I can assure you it will be repaid, a thousandfold.

Yukub

To summarize, despite meeting many different candidates I picked up on a lot more in common than one would expect. Nearly all of the candidates spoke of unity that it might as well be a Tory bumper sticker. More interestingly all candidates seem interested in restoring relations with their old friends in the LPUK. Of course, only time will tell how much of this is campaign blusters versus actually policy. Similarly, it seems “One Nation Conservative” has become a buzzword in this election with nearly every candidate empathizing core conservative values. However, even though all candidates want unity inside the party maybe members tell me this election is about the soul of the party.

Tory backbenchers and senior officials I talked to spoke of this election and the future party leader charting the course for the party. Will the party move to the right, stay in the center or move on the left. Many spoke the move to move from working with the LPUK to pass more right-wing budget than working withe Liberal Democrats left the voters and party members puzzled on the goals and what course the party was charting for the country. Former Party leader PM, DrCaeserMD echoed this sentiment. Now more than ever the party needed a clear message and direction. In the days since he has endorsed Yukub in the election.

What’s clear is that the party has a very important choice ahead of it. We may not only be electing our next leader, but also our next prime minister. We can’t take this for granted.

DrCaeserMD

The main difference in this election boils down to the race between the old and new guard. Veteran politicians like Willem and Yukub are facing against new faces like BrexitGlory and Putrid. While they all want to bring their party forward they disagree on the methods to do see and how fast they need want to move. Unfortunately for the new guard while they have an abundance of energy, most members I talked depicted the race being between the front-runner Willem and decorated Yukub with rising star BrexitGlory finishing in third. The battle to watch this election will be between two experienced politicians while the BrexitGlory campaign hopes to turn heads in the party by gathering a significant base of support and hoping to pull off an upset by maybe upstaging one of the front runners.

Whoever wins this election, it is clear that a new group of Tories are making their way up and they want their wishes to be heeded. This leadership election is not so much about policy but more about who is the better person to achieve very similar goals all round. Only time will tell if the Conservatives will survive the VONC and who will be next to the Party.

Dark clouds gathered over the halls of Westminster last night as senior opposition leaders gathered to announce their joint motion for a Vote of No Confidence against the government. Now I will be the first to admit that clearly my party does not see eye to see with Labour on most policies but it is a testament to the missteps and failure of those in power when such rare cross-party support is thrown behind to unseat the government so early into their term. 

The very beginning of the Clegg Coalition was shrouded in controversy as they had the Queen misled the House in her speech. It seemed that the new government position on prescription charges was clear stating their support for them and insisting the only alternatives were cuts to the NHS or raising taxes on those already most vulnerable. No sooner had they proclaimed it in their Queen’s Speech when political convenience kicked in and they flip-flopped on their stance. Now with their bill to repeal charges passing the House, what option will they be pursuing, cutting the NHS’s vital services or raising taxes on the sick and elderly? I am sure neither option is attractive. 

However, one political issue is not enough to topple a government-the bigger concern is this government’s lack of accountability to the House and the public. Repeatedly, in questioning the government’s officials were more than happy to avoid questions they deemed too hard, of course, that is if they even bothered to show for them. Government ministers have shown distaste for any sort of scrutiny altogether by missing questioning time, perhaps by ducking into nearby pubs to avoid to avoid questions on various matter including the financial burden of their own prized pet project Ambercare. When a government cannot give clear answers on their key policies, that is a cause for concern. After being called out on such practices the government was happy to fire but the immediately reassign the offender to another cabinet position. They have turned the Commons and their own cabinet into a revolving door of negligence. 

The final nail in the coffin was none other than the disastrous handling of JCPOA talks with the Iran by the Foreign Secretary Model-willem. It came as a shock to every member of the opposition when we had to learn from the BBC that so close to the deadline for talks over the Iran deal that the Iranians were frustrated that no talks had been attempted by the Foreign Department. An Urgent Question was rushed to the floor to understand why a matter of such importance had been seemingly neglected. Under fire by every member of the opposition, the government kept insisting that talks had been started prior to the BBC report, and they had nothing wrong. 

When questioned again on what seemed at this point a clear lie, the Foreign Secretary refused to back down from his position, instead choosing to fire back accusing the LPUK of creating a crisis of their own making. Even after a plethora of criticism from myself and my fellow opposition MPs the goverment refusal to accept reality only continued to grow. Some Conservative MPs even jumped into the debate trying to save face by asking the Foreign Secretary to list his prior experience and insisting that the reason no talks had been started was that they didn’t want to rush them. This line of reasoning forgets that the little time left before the deadline meant any deal agreed to would be inherently rushed and Parliament would not have proper time to scrutinize it, but maybe that is exactly what the goverment wanted to once more avoid any and all scrutiny.  

I am sure alarm bells are already ringing in the Conservative Party HQ, with the Prime Minister resigning even before the VONC has gone through, perhaps a sign that defeat has already been signaled. Whatever the result of vote my hope is that we can return to a functioning government that is not above taking criticism and can restore the confidence of the Commons and British public. 

/u/ThreeCommasClub is the LPUK MP for Manchester North.

The Telegraph has received breaking news from an anonymous source confirming that negotiations between the Conservative and the Classical Liberals on the possibility of a merger between the two parties. According to an anonymous source in the Conservative Party, the Tories were excited about the prospect of merger and its benefits to both parties. The source furthered that merger talks were concluding and a party-wide was expected shortly with Tory head Mili announcing the conclusion of talk to the party just now. 

This potential merger represents a move intended to revive two parties that have seen major declines in popularity. The Classical Liberals once seen as unstoppable under Twisted’s leadership served as kingmakers in Sunrise. However, following the decision by the Classical Liberals to pull out of government and the collapse of Sunrise their support has been in free fall. Their polling has declined from all-time highs to only 7% just a mere 2 points ahead of the DRF. Facing near-certain death, it is no surprise that the Classical Liberals have decided to hold merger talks with the Tories. For them, it may be the last to option to exert any power over Westminster politics.

The Conservatives are a much more complex story. While not facing the same dire polling numbers as the Liberals their activity has been subpar compared to other major parties. As Labour and the LPUK have seen record-breaking polling, the Tories have seen their support slowly decline, although not in crisis mode yet, a potential merger may just give them the activity needed to maintain their position as the largest party in the Commons after the February General Election.

Faces in the CCHQ will be smiling as the expected move will be sure to shore up their polling and secure their position as the leading party in the upcoming elections. The Liberals, on the other hand, may not be as content as this merger comes from a position of weakness and brings an end to their much-storied history. A party once considered a monolith of British politics may face the same fate as the Liberal Party of Lloyd George.

While approval from the leadership of both parties seems likely, the deal reached between them is still an unknown quantity and may be rejected by the Tory membership. Yet an even more likely possibility, is a possibility of dissent from membership of the Classical Liberals, especially from the more left-leaning backbenchers. 

In the context of wider Westminster politics, this will come as unwelcome news in Millbank Tower where Labour has been fighting hard to keep within striking distance of the Tories. Going into the elections it seems a Burple government will prevail if the merger proceeds as planned, however, only time will tell if this will be enough to ensure a majority coalition government.

Welcome to Hot Ones the show with hot politics and even hotter questions, I’m your host ThreeCommas of the Telegraph. Today as the world heats up we have a round table on foreign affairs. I hoped to have the Foreign Minister Tommy1Boys on today but he proved too busy so we will be updating the article when he is able to respond. From Iran to China the world is in turmoil. How will the UK respond to these hot issues, well stay tuned to find out.

First up is a firecracker that as slowly been burning for a while now but now has exploded. We rank it a 10,000 on the Scoville scale. Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte has resigned lambasting his former coalition partner Salvini and the League Party as “opportunistic” after they tabled a motion of no confidence against the government. With the future of the country uncertain and no parties currently able to command a majority, elections might happen as soon as early October. With the collapse of the government, one of the European largest economies is plunged into chaos and turmoil. When asked what the crisis in Italy might mean for Brexit talks or future British-Italian relations, the Foreign Office was unable to comment.

Next up is Hong Kong coming in hot with a Scoville level of 50,000. For weeks now, protesters have taken to the streets of the financial hub demanding more rights, free elections and ultimately to stop China from encroaching on their island. China on the meanwhile while not taking direct action has strongly rebuked the protests and has censored any mention of them in the mainland. In fact, many Chinese celebrities have come out against the protesters with eerily similar pictures and captions, prompting fears of a propaganda campaign by China. Further evidence revealed that China has been promoting massive disinformation campaigns on Twitter and Facebook. This paints a grim view of things to come as China clamps down on the press and thousands of troops pour into the region. This morning news broke that Simon Cheng a worker at the British Consulate in Hong Kong had gone missing after being detained at the border. Reports indicate that people were routinely stopped and searched for any sort of material considered suspicious at the border including photo or news about the protests. Before he went missing on August 8, he texted his girlfriend to pray for him, which has heightened fears concerning his safety. When asked by the Telegraph to comment, the Foreign Office told us it was busy at the moment and would respond tomorrow.

Iran is burning issue but one that appears to be sizzling out so it ranks 500,000 on Scoville scale. The Foreign Office released a press statement on the release of the Iranian vessel Grace One which would not transport oil to Syria according to Iran. The Iranians also promised to release the British flagged Stena Impero but gave no time frame. When asked to comment on when the ship would be freed, as you might have guessed was unable to comment. However, the Ministry has promised to give a statement before the House of Commons tomorrow and then give interviews.

Our last hot button issue is one so hot it’s topping the scale at over 1,000,000 Scovilles: Kashmir. There has already been an urgent question called in the House and tensions only seem to be escalating. Since India’s decision to repeal Article 370 which gave the disputed region of Kashmir special rights there has been anger in Kashmir and Pakistan. Today it emerged Pakistan would seek the intervention of the ICJ against India and citizens in the province has been blockading India troops from coming in. As the world’s most militarized zone once again brings two nuclear-armed states to the brink yet again the Foreign Office was unable to comment today. In the meanwhile, we will wait to see events unfold and the urgent motion to be answered.

That’s it for today, I will be updating the article when the Foreign Office responds and keeping an eye for more spicy news. I would like to thank the Foreign Minister for his work behind the scenes and will eagerly look forward to talking with him whenever he has the time so I can actually ask some questions. Thank you for reading and I’ll see you on another edition of Hot Ones.