ThreeCommas Presents Hot Ones: International Roulette

The Foreign Office appeared empty today, as spokespersons kept to themselves, huddled together and gave little away.

Welcome to Hot Ones the show with hot politics and even hotter questions, I’m your host ThreeCommas of the Telegraph. Today as the world heats up we have a round table on foreign affairs. I hoped to have the Foreign Minister Tommy1Boys on today but he proved too busy so we will be updating the article when he is able to respond. From Iran to China the world is in turmoil. How will the UK respond to these hot issues, well stay tuned to find out.


First up is a firecracker that as slowly been burning for a while now but now has exploded. We rank it a 10,000 on the Scoville scale. Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte has resigned lambasting his former coalition partner Salvini and the League Party as “opportunistic” after they tabled a motion of no confidence against the government. With the future of the country uncertain and no parties currently able to command a majority, elections might happen as soon as early October. With the collapse of the government, one of the European largest economies is plunged into chaos and turmoil. When asked what the crisis in Italy might mean for Brexit talks or future British-Italian relations, the Foreign Office was unable to comment.


Next up is Hong Kong coming in hot with a Scoville level of 50,000. For weeks now, protesters have taken to the streets of the financial hub demanding more rights, free elections and ultimately to stop China from encroaching on their island. China on the meanwhile while not taking direct action has strongly rebuked the protests and has censored any mention of them in the mainland. In fact, many Chinese celebrities have come out against the protesters with eerily similar pictures and captions, prompting fears of a propaganda campaign by China. Further evidence revealed that China has been promoting massive disinformation campaigns on Twitter and Facebook. This paints a grim view of things to come as China clamps down on the press and thousands of troops pour into the region. This morning news broke that Simon Cheng a worker at the British Consulate in Hong Kong had gone missing after being detained at the border. Reports indicate that people were routinely stopped and searched for any sort of material considered suspicious at the border including photo or news about the protests. Before he went missing on August 8, he texted his girlfriend to pray for him, which has heightened fears concerning his safety. When asked by the Telegraph to comment, the Foreign Office told us it was busy at the moment and would respond tomorrow.


Iran is burning issue but one that appears to be sizzling out so it ranks 500,000 on Scoville scale. The Foreign Office released a press statement on the release of the Iranian vessel Grace One which would not transport oil to Syria according to Iran. The Iranians also promised to release the British flagged Stena Impero but gave no time frame. When asked to comment on when the ship would be freed, as you might have guessed was unable to comment. However, the Ministry has promised to give a statement before the House of Commons tomorrow and then give interviews.

Our last hot button issue is one so hot it’s topping the scale at over 1,000,000 Scovilles: Kashmir. There has already been an urgent question called in the House and tensions only seem to be escalating. Since India’s decision to repeal Article 370 which gave the disputed region of Kashmir special rights there has been anger in Kashmir and Pakistan. Today it emerged Pakistan would seek the intervention of the ICJ against India and citizens in the province has been blockading India troops from coming in. As the world’s most militarized zone once again brings two nuclear-armed states to the brink yet again the Foreign Office was unable to comment today. In the meanwhile, we will wait to see events unfold and the urgent motion to be answered.


That’s it for today, I will be updating the article when the Foreign Office responds and keeping an eye for more spicy news. I would like to thank the Foreign Minister for his work behind the scenes and will eagerly look forward to talking with him whenever he has the time so I can actually ask some questions. Thank you for reading and I’ll see you on another edition of Hot Ones.

“Queen’s Speech: A House in Disarray”

As soon as rumors of a Sunrise+ coalition emerged, it was quickly dubbed by political pundits and opposition MP’s alike as the “Coalition of Chaos.” Even following the Classical Liberals and Lib Dems decision to form a Sunrise government the talks of fear and collapse have not subsided. It is safe to say Westminster at the moment is full of skeptics. However, the Queen’s Speech was an opportunity for the new government to present a new and confident face. A chance to prove their critics wrong and start the term with their right foot forward, so how did they do? Well at least they have 4 weeks left until a VoNC can be tabled.

To start off let us begin with the positives. The speech clearly outlined a commitment to NATO and meeting 2 percent of GDP on defense. This will work to allay the fears of many in the House following statements made by both Labour front and backbenchers which put their position on NATO into doubt. The government also promised to find a resolution to the conflict in Syria. While the sentiment is a good one, I will note that none of the parties manifestos outlined any actual comprehensive plan to deal with the perplexing conflict that consumed the region for nearly a decade. The same goes for dealing with ISIS which according to the Pentagon’s Inspector General as of last year may have up to 30,000 fighters. For all intents and purposes the government promise to bring peace to Syria are nothing but a pipe dream.  

Now if there was one word to define this speech it would be repeal. The Sunrise+ coalition seems to be hellbent on repealing as many Burple policies as possible. From lowering the voting age, abolishing prescription charges and scraping the distributed profits tax. Perhaps it is because they have no ideas of their own. Who knows? The real issue comes with the replacement part. There is the promise of elevating the status of pets from property. But to what exactly will they be raised to? The grand National Education Service will be “free and far as they wish to take it.” It seems the only way to pay for these programs will be raise taxes which will certainly hurt the economy and everyday families. The real question people around the country want to know is what taxes will be raised and by how much?

The crown jewel of the speech is of course immigration. The speech insists that the government will expand the current liberalized immigration system to members of NATO. How that will be done despite the vigorous opposition by the EU remains to be seen. Speaking to the Telegraph from Brussels a top EU official speaking in confidently had this to say when asked about one on one immigration deals with EU countries—⁠“impossible and something that will never be agreed to.” The fact the only way to achieve this would be betray the results of the referendum is acknowledged by the Chancellor-Saunders16. It is a true testament to the state of the government that their Queen’s Speech as divided the coalition. the I guess the government might need to hire some magicians because they are going to need to pull a rabbit out of a hat with this one.

Rather providing an image of a strong and capable government, the Queen’s Speech will keep opposition doubting and the nation wondering. The government promises quite literally the impossible without no mention on how to afford new programs or any hint on how to win over the EU. Is the sun rising or dawning on Sunrise? Only time will tell.

“A ghost town”: Inside the Royal Commission for Devolution

It was to “settle the issue”, in the words of a Prime Minister. A cross-party, independent commission to navigate the murky waters of devolution. It was to answer two thrusting questions. Firstly, the “correct arrangement” for calling a referendum on a reserved matter. And perhaps most significantly; which powers are best administered by devolved government in the place of Westminster, and which are not.

Scotland voted strongly in favour of devolving responsibility for “welfare” to the Scottish Parliament in 2018.

The Royal Commission for Devolution was announced on the 28th April, seen largely as a response to politicians in Scotland demanding new powers and a larger role in Scottish decision-making. Attributing to a feeling of being ignored, leading to the controversial Referendum on Scottish Welfare Devolution, the commission was well received.

The leader of the Irish Parliamentary Party, also a member of the commission, promised “a solution to the devolution question, once and for all”. The leader of the Social Democratic Party spoke of the commission as “only a positive thing for our country”.

[The Royal Commission] aims to put to bed the issue of devolution long-term: not just to Scotland but to all areas of Britain.

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With a membership of ten, the commission was to draw on a broad range of expertise and political opinion; representing no less than seven political parties and groupings.

Yet the warrant issued by the sovereign, on the advice of the government of the day, made clear the expectation of the commission to publish its findings “by the end of July”. At the time of publishing this article, the 17th August, no such report has been published.

Speaking anonymously to The Model Telegraph, a source close to the work of the commission described it as a “ghost town”. Another, who shall also remain anonymous, spoke of “[twenty] pages of comments and findings” that “have not been formally compiled into one document”; also warning not to expect a report “anytime soon”.

Explaining the delay as the fault of “people who were meant to provide expertise ended up not doing their part, in particular those who now are set to occupy the highest offices of Sunrise”. Despite this, they were “confident a report will be produced”.

…people who were meant to provide expertise ended up not doing their part, in particular those who now are set to occupy the highest offices of Sunrise.

The expected contents of this report remain unclear, with such a broad range of views held by members of the commission, a compromise appeared to be inevitable. Yet the Model Telegraph was told “welfare [devolution] does not have a mandate”, with “many” members of the commission viewing “the matter of changing the constitutional settlement as not being worth it”. Going further, the source argued the “issue has been settled in favour of the status quo” with “those who are meant to support… change have decided to no longer fight for it”.

“We are extremely close to a deal”: Executive Coalition close to agreement as Labour remains confident of securing Number 10

On Monday the Conservative Party announced “negotiations to form a Conservative led government”, the so-called Executive Coalition joined by the Classical Liberals and Liberal Democrats, were underway. Named after the governing coalition in Northern Ireland, such a government would be short of a majority with 50 seats in the House of Commons, likely the motivation of achieving a “confidence and supply from the Irish Parliamentary Party”, with such negotiations also confirmed to be taking place.

This news comes as the Labour Party makes a bid to lead the 22nd government in concert with the Liberal Alliance and Social Democrats: The Sunrise+ Coalition.

A Classical Liberal spokesman confirmed “teams from the Conservative and Unionist Party, Classical Liberals and Liberal Democrats have met to discuss a possible coalition”, describing these negotiations as “productive”.

When approached for comment, the Labour Leader said, “I believe it would be wrong from me to comment on other parties’ matters”; before going on to say he “[remains] confident that Labour is fully able to form a centre-left government”.

An anonymous source close to negotiations told The Model Telegraph “we are extremely close to a deal”. Going further to say the agreement is “enjoying widespread support from [leadership]” and “it is clear the Conservatives are willing to move away from the politics of Blurple”.

Friedmanite19, the Leader of the Libertarian Party, reacted to this story by saying “it is of deep regret that the [Libertarians] will not form part of the next government and have been abandoned by the Conservatives…”. Describing the Liberal Alliance as “nearly [bringing] this country to the brink”, he went on to say of the coalition “I will reserve judgement for when I see the policies but I fear the Conservatives may have made too many concessions and have betrayed centre-right voters.”

I will reserve judgement for when I see the policies but I fear the Conservatives may have made too many concessions and have betrayed centre-right voters.

The Liberal Alliance will enjoy the leverage of kingmakers, able to choose between the Conservatives and Labour. The Model Telegraph understands the Liberal Alliance membership will vote between the two prospective agreements if negotiations are successful.

BREAKING: Sunrise+ talks ongoing as incomplete coalition agreement revealed

The verified document can be viewed here.

The Model Telegraph has been provided the incomplete coalition agreement between the Labour Party, Classical Liberals, Liberal Democrats and Social Democratic Party: The so-called Sunrise+ coalition.

The government would see Saunders16 of the Social Democratic Party take the position of Chancellor of the Exchequer with the party also occupying the Department for Energy and Climate Change.

The Labour Party would unsurprisingly take senior positions, including the office of Prime Minister and Secretary of State for the Home Department.

The Classical Liberals claim the Foreign Office and the Ministry for Exiting the European Union with the Liberal Democrats appearing to draw the short stick, securing the office of First Secretary of State and Secretary of State for Defence.

The provisional cabinet includes an incomplete ‘Policy Agenda’ including an ‘Iran Strategy’ of ‘No swap for swap of the tankers’. Also included was a commitment not to cancel the State Visit of President Donald Trump, ‘retain Free Movement of People with Europe’ and ‘expand… to NATO and Commonwealth nations with 3/4ths of UK GNI’.

Also revealing is a unagreed ‘commitment to NATO and Trident as a clear matter of Cabinet Collective Responsbility’ perhaps in reference to the Labour Leader’s historic opposition to nuclear weapons.

When approached for comment, the Leader of the Labour Party, Secretary_Salami refused to comment saying: “We deny to comment until after the results of the election have been announced”.

The Prime Minister responded to a request to comment by saying of the negotiations, “It’s a little premature isn’t it? Don’t count your chickens before they’re hatched”.

#GEXII: Conservatives set to remain largest party as Labour makes progress

Despite suffering losses, a projection commissioned by The Model Telegraph predicts the Conservative Party will remain the largest contingent of the House of Commons, the Labour Party in a close second with the Libertarian Party, Classical Liberals and Social Democratic Party also with much to celebrate.

The Liberal Democrats and the Green Party are expected to have a difficult night, with the latter contesting electoral oblivion. In our projection, we expect the Greens to go home empty handed.

If on Sunday this projection is proven to be correct, the Government of the Conservatives and Libertarians would fall to 48 seats. The so-called Sunrise+ coalition comprising of the Labour Party, Classical Liberals, Liberal Democrats and SDP could rely on 49 seats and mount an effective challenge for Downing Street. In this theoretical House of Commons, “other” including Plaid Cymru, The People’s Movement and The Democratic Reformist Front may become influential in deciding the success of any government.

The full projection can be viewed here.

Where to watch

Highland and Grampian

The north of Scotland played host to a strong challenge from the Social Democratic Party and a relatively weak defence from a Conservative incumbent. Expect a large swing towards the challenger; although wether this will prove enough to dislodge a confortable lead in unclear.

North Yorkshire

Another Conservative incumbent in trouble, with a challenge lead by the Classcal Liberals; with endorsement from Labour and the Liberal Democrats. A strong campaign by both candidates could see a photo finish.

Birmingham, Solihull, and Coventry

With the absence of New Britain, and a Conservative no-show, the Liberal Democrats and Liberatarian Party will battle for this seat. Poor polling before the election and a weak national campaign could well see the Liberal Democrats unseated. Consider this seat a weather vane for a party hoping to stave off losses. Lose, and they should expect a poor night.

Derbyshire

A straight fight between the controversial Banana_Republic_ and a former Prime Minister. Expect a close result as Labour target this seat with a strong campaign. The Conservatives may hold with a equally strong defence and an endorsement from the Libertarian Party.

Bedfordshire and Hertfordshire

Another Conservative no-show puts what would be considered a safe seat well into contention, with in insurgent Liberal Democrat campaign, the Conservatives will be hoping their lead is enough in the face of a weak Liberal national campaign.

Essex

Another Conservative held seat, another challenge from the opposition. This time, a sam-irl Labour campaign with momentum. The Conservatives will mount a strong defence, but ultimately we expect vote splitting with the Libertarians and Classical Liberals to hand Labour the seat.

Glamorgan and Gwent

The Welsh Liberal Alliance should be worried in the face of strong campaigning from Labour, the Conservatives and Plaid Cymru. A four horse race. In a seat where anyone can win, the Conservatives and Labour seem the most likely to gain from a weakened Welsh Liberal Alliance.