GEXI: Tories gain as Commons move right

The Conservative Party maintained its position as the largest party in Parliament last night, as it gained 35 seats in the Commons. The Daily Telegraph, meanwhile, looks into what could come next.

The General Election came to a close yesterday, as the results were released by YouGov and the BBC yesterday evening, after polling day on Saturday.

The results proved good for the Conservatives, who saw a rise of over 10 seats from the last General Election, in line with predicitions that they would see a rise. Both Labour and the Libertarians saw a rise, as did the Greens, while the Liberal Alliance shrank, likely in response to their rocky government over the last term.

Cumbria and Lanacashire North switched hands yet again, this time being gained by InfernoPlato.

This election also proved positive for the Independent Groupings. New Britain won two seats, and the new Climate Rebellion Group won a seat as well.

How did the Predictions stack up?

The Predictions were quite good, in terms of the National scores. Almost every predicition (except _paul_rand_’s underestimated the number of blue seats), and on average the predictions overestimated most other parties’ seat shares.

Who will be the next government?

The House of Commons has entered ‘Coalition Forming’ mode to allow MPs to swear in and Party Leaders to form blocs for the next term.

Graph of possible MPs (interactive version above), courtesy of zombie-rat

One possible coalition would be a continuation of the current Government (Conservatives, LPUK, Classical Liberals and New Britain), which would put the Government at 62 seats. An often cited possibility is also the ‘Broad Left’ coalition, which would only command 38 members of the House.

All likely majority coalitions, however, involve Conservative participation.

Throwawayravenclaw, the Liberal Democrat Deputy Leader stated they “will not go into coalition into the Libertarian Party” and that they want to work with “ideological partners”.

Comments

The Daily Telegraph asked some party representatives for comments about the results of the General Election.

The Leader of the Conservative Party, Leafy Emerald, responded:

I am very pleased with the results and I am glad to see gains were made all around Britain. Overall, the election result was an outstanding result for us and I am very proud of the work that was put in by all of the members of the party. It was a true group effort from writing the manifesto to campaigning on the issues that matter to the British public.

Leafy_Emerald, Conservative Leader

akc8, the Leader of New Britain, said:

New Britain is very proud to have every one of our candidates win a seat this general election, and builds a great platform for us moving forward. In a tight parliament our two seats could be vital and we will be working to get the most bang for our buck with our seats for our voters in the West Midlands. The whole country saw what we could do with zero seats last term, and we will look to better than this.

akc8, Leader of New Britain

The Principal Speaker of the Green Party also responded:

I am pleased that we have retained the seats we did, and vow to make whatever changes are required to regain faith in our eco-socialist vision

zombie-rat, Principal Speaker of the Green Party

The Daily Telegraph would like to thank zombie-rat for the interactive coalition graphs.

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TLC to endorse Climate Rebellion

A leak of TLC chats confirms TLC “election pact”, with endorsements of fringe parties.

An anonymous source has told the Sunday Telegraph that it is likely that the Traffic Light Coalition (TLC) will endorse DF44 on Sunday’s Election.

A leaked screenshot from a TLC Group where Liberal Democrat and Labour Representatives discussing the matter of an endorsement of DF44 tells us many things about the current state of the TLC.

It shows us that the TLC is setting up the infrastructure needed to secure the keys to Number 10 in the next term.In the last election we saw the strength of the “Liberty Bloc” Pact between the Liberal Democrats, the LPUK and the Classical Liberals, which secured 15, 11 and 10 seats respectively . This having brought a  very strong showing suggests the TLC will likely be hoping to replicate this with a similarly designed Pact. This could potentially be a threat to the current Broad-Right coalition which makes up the 20th Government, and raises the question of whether we should expect a right wing pact to counterbalance the left wing pact.

Secondly, it confirms the alleged left wing shift of the Liberal Democrats, which began under Wagbo. under TheNoHeart, the Liberal Democrats were more economically liberal, embracing even the LPUK. But now, after two leaders on the left wing in Wagbo  and Estoban06, it is clear the Lib Dem shift is long-term, and that the Lib Dems will likely find themselves within a TLC Pact in the next election.

Leaked screenshot from TLC group

Thirdly, it shows the influence of the Beveridge Group lead by Wagbo. Earlier this week it was revealed that former prime minister Wagbo would lead the Beveridge Group. his presence in negotiations is very telling and would raise the question of whether a right wing presence, possibly lead by TheNoHeart, has any sway over the party at this time. it raises the question of how long it will take until we see repeats of previous factional conflict that we’ve seen within the party in the past, such as Nutter4Hire’s departure to the Classical Liberals (https://modelmonolith.dudaone.com/nutter4hire-forced-to-resign) from the Liberal Democrats is sustainable.

The Sunday Telegraphreached out to a number of the people mentioned in this article for comment.

DF44 confirmed to us, that he had accepted TLC endorsement providing the following comment:

I’ve had an excellent history working with them in previous by-elections, and we agree on many areas – with the Greens in several areas, with Labour on the need for economic and social justice, and with the Liberal Democrats on the importance of devolution. I’m proud to be able to accept their endorsements and bring a voice to Parliament that will be persistent in reminding us all that we’ve only got 12 Years Left to avoid disaster, and we need to make changes now.

DF44, Leader of Climate Rebellion


South Lancashire, the constituency where DF44 last ran.

Estoban06 provided the following comments in response to questions raised in this article:

The Climate Rebellion Party stands for a very worthy cause. Climate change is one of the, if not the most pressing issues at this minute. Indeed, even apart from climate change, we share many similar views. DF44 is a wonderful parliamentarian, and I can not think of any better equipped to serve Lancashire South. We will be endorsing him in the general election.

I don’t find [the perceived growing influence of the left wing in the party due to factional organisation within the party] worrying. The Executive represents the  views of the entire party and we make sure to take all views into account.

Estoban06, Leader of the TLC


Wagbo provided the following comments in regards to the questions we raised regarding the influence of the Beveridge Group over the Liberal Democrats:

I think that the right is far less organised and far less of a force within the party. If the right were to organise, they’d have exactly the same access that I do – they happen to choose not to. As the Chair of the Beveridge Group, I am pleased that left-leaning Liberal Democrats are well represented and listened to, and I have full confidence in the party Leader.

Wagbo, Former Prime Minister and Chair of the Beveridge Group


The Telegraph attempted to contact a number of members of the Liberal Democrats who are generally perceived to be on the right of their party, either historically or currently, none were available for comment


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This leaked communication raises more questions than it answers. While it is not exactly surprising that the TLC is endorsing the Climate Rebellion Party, could it suggest that the Greens have a larger influence in the Coalition than it may seem to the outside due to the Climate Rebellion party generally being perceived as being within the ideological field of the Green Party? One may also wonder, with the endorsement of one fringe party,. Will the TLC be endorsing other Left Wing Fringe Parties such as the Communist League of Britain? Does the leak suggest the death of the economically liberal wing of the Liberal Democrats, possibly due to lack of organisation? Does it suggest that there is an internal fight for the heart and soul of the Liberal Democrats, being shielded from outside eyes? In this case, silence may be deafening.

One thing we can say for certain is that the left is now uniting, but what will this mean for the future of Britain? What will this mean for the future of the left? What will this mean for the future of Bipartisan Compromise?  And what will this mean for the future of the Liberal Democrats? Only time will tell.

The Sunday Telegraph will welcome any responses to this article, please DM Rand (Rand#0805) or PJR (Pjr#6252) on discord.

Tories in lead in constituency polls

The Conservative Party have come out on top in constituency polls conducted over the last term.

The Conservatives will win in nearly 32 of the 50 constituency seats, a preliminary Welman-Gulls poll released today has shown. If the polls are correct, the party would see an increase of nearly 23 from its nine current constituency seats, with major gains from the Lib Dems and the Green Party.

Cumbria, a constituency the Conservatives are predicted to gain.

The self proclaimed “broad church” right wing party would hold all of the seats in its stronghold of the East Midlands (except Nottinghamshire, which the Loyalists are predicted to take back, however as it is likely they will not run, it would then go to the Tories) while making considerable gains in the South (holding all but two seats) and a surprising rise in Scotland, holding half of the nation’s four constituency seats.

Of the other parties, Labour and the Greens are both predicted high seat counts, with seven each, and the Liberal parties are both only predicted two. The Libertarians also see a drop, keeping hold of just one seat in the West Midlands. In Wales, the picture hasn’t changed, with Plaid Cymru holding on to all the constituencies in the country.

The Greens are predicted to gain Birmingham.

However, it should be noted that these polls don’t necessarily reflect what the actual outcome will be. These simply show polls based on term-time activity. The polls could therefore change based on how active candidates are. Furthermore, these polls do not account for the regional list seats, which may even out the balance to better match the National Polling.

When approached on the matter, Conservative Deputy Leader eelsemaj99 said:

“I am very pleased by this polling and excited by the results, it shows that we have many competitive seats and puts us in a good position to pick up seats at the next election.”

eelsemaj99

The Liberal Democrat Deputy Leader throwawayravenclaw also responded to the polls saying:

“[The Liberal Democrats] have faith that a combined effort from the Traffic Light Coalition will be able to produce a good result for the Liberal Democrats and our partners.”

throwawayravenclaw
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This of course presents an interesting concept of a potential TLC “pact” going into the election, with the left-wing bloc working together to provide a unified force against the Conservatives. This would most likely involve a series of mutual endorsements and would increase the TLC’s ability to win seats (with the vote share of three parties per constituencies, rather than one). This could mean that they can gain seats where the right vote is split.

In all, the polls show a rocky start to the election for many parties, but those affected have shown they aren’t standing down from the fight and still see a good result for themselves in the end.


Launch of the Model Telegraph

Good evening, MHoC. This is the announcement post for the launch of the Model Telegraph. 🎉

We have one goal: to be MHoC’s source for interesting stories and reliable news. I am the Editor in Chief/Managing Director and /u/paul_randis the Deputy Editor.

Internally, there will be two available full-time roles (at present) “Contributor” and “Columnist”. Contributors are persons who help the Telegraph in achieving its goal as becoming the favoured source for reliable news by posting/writing a range of things such as articles, interviews as well as sourcing leaks and Op-Eds. Columnists are persons who post regular Op-Eds for the Telegraph. Anyone from any part of the political spetrum is welcome to contribute etc.

We are also of course happy to publish any Op-Eds or leaks (M: even if it were to damage our own goals in the game), provided it doesn’t slander or impact our ability to be a source for news (and doesn’t break good reddiquette or MHoC content rules). Our Editorial Policy is that every voice should be heard.

If you are interested in anything above, please DM either me (discord pjr#6252) or Rand (Rand#0805). Op-Eds/Leaks can be directed to this sub’s modmail, or to either of us on discord.

Please don’t hesitate to DM us for anything you want/need.

Sub Link:https://www.reddit.com/r/ModelTelegraph

Discord Link: https://discord.gg/hrM9RNe