Author: Cody atmhoc

Article written jointly by CommanderCody_2002 and cthulhuiscool2, Members of Parliament for South Yorkshire and Surrey respectively.

The Prime Minister has yet to respond to allegations of misleading parliament, by claiming the previous government reduced the budget of the Legal Aid Agency in the Queen’s Speech. In fact, the exact opposite was true. It is perhaps fitting that the speech intended to signal the direction of the government contained such a glaring mistake. More fitting still, that the government would adopt its head-in-the-sand approach to public accountability.

What amounted to a shambolic start to the life of this government, only grew worse when the budget was published on Wednesday. The last remnants of credibility in the Conservative Party were gone. The ever-shifting sands of Conservative policy are deserving of their own article, yet in embracing a hike in the burden of taxation and adopting deficit spending what can we say the Conservative Party stands for if not to maintain its pathetic grasp on power?

The Conservative party would do well to fear the article published by former Deputy Leader /u/LeChevalierMal-Fait, in which it is alleged the Universal Childcare Act was written with “Trojanesque intent”. Former Conservative Member of Parliament /u/Greejatus described the Act as a “poison pill”. The Conservative Party has so far failed to respond yet it is not hard to believe these accusations to be true, only the weapon intended to be used against the previous government has backfired spectacularly. Most ironic of all, perhaps, the Chancellor of the Exchequer intended to be its victim now stands victorious as Chief Secretary to the Treasury. Rather than pass a Sunrise budget under the premiership of Labour, he will pass a Sunrise budget under a Conservative government with the very blessing of those Conservative members who so vocally opposed his policies just a few months ago.

Furthermore, in the very same article, the former Conservative Deputy Leader alleges the existence of a malicious internal pressure group with immense powers “I feel increasingly worried that the group responsible for the dirty tricks is now not only still in senior positions of government but in such positions unrestrained by upstanding people like SirToast.” Hinting at the continued existence of the infamous “Bullingdon Club” and its continued stranglehold over Conservative leadership and by extension, the Prime Minister.

Internal Tory issues aside however the Prime Minister is potentially facing other issues surrounding the Universal Childcare Act. Due to the program’s expansive nature, it is likely that the currently allocated £30 billion allocated to the program may not be nearly enough to properly fund it. With other sources indicating that the program will cost between £50 and £65 billion per annum to operate. Yet another budgetary blunder made by the Prime Ministers team is the lack of inclusion of Welsh income tax in the budget, effectively imposing austerity on Wales. All this, despite a Conservative First Minister who also sits in the cabinet as Foreign Secretary, and Chief Secretary to the Treasury having also served as Welsh Finance Minister. 

The budgetary issues don’t end here as the Conservative-Liberal Treasury team may have broken the Climate Change Act by setting the carbon tax at 60 instead of the 80 pounds per tonne recommended by a climate change commission potentially committing an act of ultra vires before the British Parliament and undercutting the previous “Blurple” government’s efforts against climate change. A government which conversely the Conservative were a part of.

These blunders are only exacerbated by the lack of transparency and communication from the Conservative party and their junior partners as shown by the Prime Minister’s sudden absence from PMQs and his sudden substitution by the Former Classical Liberal Foreign Secretary and now Tory Deputy Leader – model-Willem who ended up answering the questions intended for the PM at the last moment. The Prime Minister and his replacement also conveniently failed to answer the question regarding whether “Ambercare” was intended as a trap.

The government’s abysmal performance and behaviour towards other parties leave much to be desired, however, it is ultimately a minority government whose success greatly depends on cooperation with the very parties it has chosen to alienate…..

Commander_Cody2002 is a Libertarian political pundit involved in Westminster politics

In 2010 the first full coalition government since the Second World War was formed, consisting of the Liberal Democrats under Nick Clegg and Tories under David Cameron. A coalition that may be considered controversial by some set a precedent that forever changed the British political landscape and it appears that the coalition may indeed be back.

At approximately 1 pm the Telegraph received the proposed Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition agreement, which can be found here. Overall the distribution of the offices of state appears to mimic the second Blurple agreement with the Conservatives receiving Lion’s share of cabinet posts as expected and retaining all but 1 great office, with the Liberals receiving the home Office, Defence, Chief Secretary to the Treasury and a handful of other primarily junior cabinet posts.

In general, the Policies of the “Daffodil” agreement appear to be a reasonable middle ground between long-standing Liberal Democrat policies such as the skills-wallet and the merger of income tax with national insurance and this election’s Tory manifesto policies such as the maintenance of HS2, “Ambercare” et al.

Of particular note however are the government’s Brexit and immigration policies , with the government committing to “Points-based immigration with a commitment to being liberal & pro-migration. Ensure that the points-based system developed doesn’t discriminate against migrants from poorer countries (i.e. contextualizing accomplishments)”.  Such a vague approach appears to emulate the immigration proposal laid out in the Club-Tory merger earlier this year and in all likelihood is likely to leave both sides somewhat discontent, especially former UKIP members present in the Tory party.

The coalition’s Brexit policy is perhaps best described by the document itself “Negotiate throughout the term a baseline for a future arrangement, seeking to gain as much access to the EU as possible whilst retaining the ability to leverage our markets and our ability to diverge. This baseline will allow a future government in August to make the final decision”. Once again the policy appears rather vague and it seems that the Conservatives wish to defer the final Brexit decision until August, hinting at the possibility of a new coalition partner down the road.

Another interesting aspect of the agreement is the Treasury policy, which is primarily centered around reversing the previous “People’s budget” and restructuring the Taxation system away from the Carbon and Land Value Taxes to the VAT and Income tax. This would be achieved by cutting the LVT and Carbon tax, implementing Pollution Profits and Nitrate Pollution Levies and raising both the value-added tax and income tax. The specific VAT policy may be a rather unpleasant surprise to many long-time conservative and Liberal voters, but the increase will probably be off-set by the cuts to the Carbon tax.

All in all the leaked agreement appears to confirm earlier rumors about the possibility of a new Conservative-Liberal coalition and lays out a moderate if not slightly vague vision for the United Kingdom going forward, time will only tell however if the membership of the  Liberal Democrats shares this vision and whether they may not choose another path such as a possible Labour or Libertarian coalition.

A mirrored copy of the agreement is available here as well

/u/CommanderCody is a Libertarian pundit active in Westminster politics.

Ever since it’s the foundation in 1834 the Conservative and Unionist party has always been one of the largest and most influential, if not the single most influential, political party in British history.

Their success can mostly be traced back to two primary factors – the relative popularity of different forms of conservatism such as the fabled One Nation conservatism, Liberal Conservatism, and Thatcherism with the British electorate and the party’s status as a “big tent” center-right party, which allows the party to gain support from both centrist and more right-wing voters from all four corners of the United Kingdom.

With both the Loyalist League and the Libertarian Party on the rise and the integration of Classical Liberals into the Conservative Party, a fundamental question arises “has the church become too broad?”

To answer that question it is imperative to consider what are the key cornerstones of the Tory party, which can be defined as fiscal conservatism, British unionism, and Euroscepticism. Of course, these characteristics may shift over time depending on the current faction in power, for instance, there are slight policy differences between the former conservative party leader Margaret Thatcher and the current Prime Minister /u/modelmili, although the key characteristics remain.

With the merger between the Conservatives and the Europhilic Classical liberals and the move of many long-time Tory members to the Libertarians and Loyalist League, these defining values may slowly erode as the Conservative Party tries to increase its appeal with the more Liberal voters at the expense of their more right-wing supporters.

Such a move is not unheard of as a similar shift occurred during under David Cameron and his “hug-a-hoodie” strategy, which managed to successfully modernise the image of the Tories allowing them to become the biggest party in the 2010 general election and to subsequently form a coalition with the Liberal Democrats. Another similar situation to the Clib-Tory merger would be the 2017 integration of UKIP into the Conservative party.

What is different from the days of David Cameron and the UKIP merger, is the scope of the shift as the Conservatives have integrated an entire distinct party with inherently different policies in regards immigration and the EU into their ranks and the presence of other right-wing alternatives, which means that the more right-wing Tory voters do not have to vote tactically to keep Labour out.

The policy differences between the Classical Liberals and the Tories will probably be the most problematic in the long run as the Tories will most likely not be capable of forming a majority government on their own and will be forced to pick between forming a coalition with the centrist Liberal Democrats or the more right-wing Libertarian Party, with the latter option being more likely to give the Tories a working majority needed to form a government.

Regardless of the choice made the coalition choice will be sure to displease a significant part of the Tory voters, be it the party’s new Liberal supporters or the core right-wing voters, due to the compromises that will have to be made for a such a coalition government to properly function.

In some cases, such compromises may not please everyone involved as proven by several high-profile Tory members defecting to the Loyalist League with the former Minister for the Cabinet Office /u/GravityCat writing “I am fearful that this merger reflects the rot of repeated opportunistic decisions being considered more important than firstly being a Conservative party.” In his resignation letter, whilst /u/PM-me_Gretchien wrote to the Prime Minister “I have a lot of respect for the Conservative Party and remain hopeful that one day it will return to its storied past support of true and unabridged British conservatism, and that the party can move on from the increasingly opportunistic social liberal parasitism”, showing that not everyone can be easily pleased by such a compromise.

Yet the biggest issue will most likely come after the formation of the government as the Prime Minister will be forced to find the incredibly delicate balance between pleasing both the conservative and liberal factions of his party and appeasing his coalition partners, all the while facing immense scrutiny from both the voters and the Opposition, especially Labour which has also seen a rise in the polls.

In the short-term however the benefits of integrating the Classical Liberals into the Tory party are immense as they gave the party a massive polling boost which can be seen here:

Polling of other right-wing parties late December to early January

Source: aggregate Reddit polling.

What has to be noted though is that both the Classical Liberals and the Conservatives have been in relative decline in comparison to other right-wing parties and that even though the Classical Liberals have been fully integrated into the Tories approximately a quarter of Classical Liberal voters chose not to support the Conservatives. Another issue when considering the effect of the merger on the Conservative Party is that, whilst the party has grown in numbers it may not have necessarily grown in activity as only a portion of Classical Liberal MPs has been truly active over the past couple of weeks.

So whilst in the immediate run-up to the general election the Conservatives appear to have gained massively in the polls, it is still uncertain whether they will be able to hold onto these new voters during the actual election and whether they will not decline even further in the coming weeks, due to the ever-increasing pressure from other right-wing parties and Labour and their relatively lower activity in comparison to the before-mentioned parties.

What is certain however is that merely integrating the Classical Liberals into the Tory Party will probably not be enough to maintain Tory dominance in the long-term and the party will need to increase its activity if it has any hope of remaining the most influential right-wing party in British politics.

On Sunday The Model Telegraph received the document outlining the merger between the Conservatives and Classical Liberals from an anonymous source, with further sources corroborating the story.

This agreement, which can be found here integrates all branches of the Classical Liberals into the Conservative and Unionist party including the newly formed Unionist Liberals into their respective Conservative counterparts, it also terminates all agreements previously made by the Classical Liberals fully integrating the Liberals into the Conservative Party. It remains unclear if such an agreement would cause the Government of Scotland and Wales to collapse.

However, not everything is looking bleak for the Liberals especially in regards to the devolved administrations of Scotland where Duncs11 will become the Leader of Scottish conservatives with _paul_rand_ becoming his deputy and Wales with HiddeVdV96 becoming the Leader of the Welsh Conservatives, whilst also being appointed their third deputy Leader alongside Zygark and CheckMyBrain11. 

The agreement requires a supermajority of both Classical Liberal and Conservative members to consent to it through a vote, according to our sources said vote is being held right now and will end on as soon as Monday. The deal may still be rejected by the membership of either party, the possibility of that is quite high in the Classical Liberals as many of their left-leaning members will most likely choose to reject the deal. 

All in all the agreement empowers the Tories at the expense of Classical Liberals and is likely to provide a significant boost in the upcoming General Election, however, it is still uncertain whether the centre-right Tories will be capable of reconciling their views with the much more left-wing and Europhilic wing of the Classical Liberals, with issues such as immigration and the future relationship with the European Union having to be resolved between the newly merged parties. The agreement stipulated the party will be “committed to the values of liberal conservatism and pro-migration.”

/u/CommanderCody is a Libertarian pundit active in Westminster politics.

Throughout its history, the British Parliament has passed hundreds if not thousands of bills, some of the evolutionary and some revolutionary. However very few of them are as ruinous and misguided as B949, commonly known as “The Immigration Bill”, introduced by the former “Sunrise” government.

A bill which has the potential to force government ministers to unwillingly trap the United Kingdom in the European Union and to effectively kill Brexit once and for all, all the while loosening citizenship requirements and opening the British labour market to cheap labour not just from Europe, but a large chunk of the Commonwealth countries.

A question arises “How will immigration reform kill Brexit?” 

Through the first clause of the proposed bill “(1) The Secretary of State is empowered and instructed to enter negotiations with member states of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, the European Union and members of the Commonwealth of Nations with the objective of a treaty guaranteeing the free movement of workers as set out in section 1 of this Act.”

In the simplest of terms, the government is compelled to work towards freedom of movement with EU, NATO and Commonwealth member states that have 3/4s of the United Kingdom’s Gross National Product, which in itself is nigh impossible and had previously been ruled out by the EU itself, with Michael Barnier the EU chief negotiator saying “…as far as I’m aware there is no way to simply allow the wealthy countries in and not the rest. Nor would we want that”, however, the catch is in the fact that the government is “empowered and instructed” read legally compelled to negotiate with the European Union “with the objective of a treaty guaranteeing the free movement of workers”. 

This is incredibly problematic as Freedom of Movement is one of the “four freedoms” or cornerstones of the European Single Market, which are defined as “free movement of people, goods, services and capital”.

Said freedoms are considered inseparable by the European Union as stated by Mr Barnier “the stance of the European Union that the four freedoms are indivisible. Freedom of Movement cannot work without the other three, nor can the other three work without it”, thus to comply with the legal requirement set out by the bill the Government would be forced to accept all 4 freedoms of the single market, effectively trapping Britain in the Single market creating a limbo between Leave and Remain, all the while the results of 2 referendums, which soundly rejected both Remain and the Single Market are ignored.

Yet the issues posed by this piece of legislation don’t end with the death of Brexit, the legislation lays out plans to drastically reduce the requirements for the granting of a British citizenship and allows “unintentional administrative errors made by an applicant when filling out forms.”, effectively giving applicants the license to lie when applying for citizenship, allows certain immigrants to claim benefits in the United Kingdom and selectively chooses, which countries’ citizens are worthy of working in the United Kingdom all in the name of “diversity”.

One question remains, however, is the Opposition attempting to bring back its failed Brexit strategy through the backdoor or is it so out of touch that it is expecting the European Union to budge on something  which had been ruled out only a couple of months ago…