#GEXIII: Conservatives set for a difficult night as Sunrise- gains ground

The full projection, including list seats, can be viewed here.

A poll commissioned on the final day of campaigning on behalf of the Telegraph and conducted by the International Institute of Scientific Facts and Knowledge, found the Conservative Party likely to remain the largest force in the House of Commons – albeit diminished in size. Labour, the Libertarians, the Liberal Democrats and the Democratic Reformists would also have much to celebrate; yet with no obvious coalition able to form a majority government.

Yet it is not all bad news for the Conservatives, as they look set to sweep into the one time strongholds of the Classical Liberals in the North West and North East. Yet waning popularity nationally will almost certainly result in a disappointing tally.

The scene is set for a number of Conservative/Labour battleground constituencies, including Upper Severn and the East of England seats of Cambridgeshire and Essex. If the Libertarian Party can win the former Classical Liberal seat of Tyne and Wear, and reclaim four seats in Yorkshire, they should expect a night of celebration. Similarly, the Democratic Reformist Front will be hoping to cause an upset in London, perhaps winning its first constituency seat in West London.

Blurple strikes back! Voters punish former parties of Government in newest poll

Former Deputy Prime Minister and Leader of the Libertarian Party UK, /u/Friedmanite19, will have much to celebrate in early December polling.

Newest polling, commissioned on behalf of the Telegraph, suggests a decline in support for the governing parties of the former Sunrise Coaltion. The Conservative Party and Libertarian Party UK were the biggest winners, with a moderate increase in support for both the Loyalist League and the Yorkshire Party.

Conservative Party31.09 (+1.43)
Labour Party21.30 (-1.98)
Libertarian Party15.20 (+1.74)
Liberal Democrats11.98 (-0.66)
Classical Liberals8.95 (-1.38)
Loyalist League2.65 (+0.22)
Democratic Reformist Front 2.51 (-1.16)
The People’s Movement1.75 (+0.14)
Other1.50 (+0.34)
Yorkshire Party1.16 (+0.25)
Plaid Cymru0.60 (-0.25)

If the General Election were held today, who would you vote for?

Polling is provided by the Commons Speaker and may be considered canon.

GEXIII: Conservative comeback as Labour support continues to swell in latest polling

A poll commissioned by The Telegraph shows only a three point lead between the Conservative Party and the Labour Party, boasting 28% and 25% respectively.

Conservative Party28.34 (+1.64)
Labour Party25.22 (+0.99)
Libertarian Party13.47 (-0.40)
Liberal Democrats12.39 (-0.21)
Classical Liberals10.90 (-0.49)
Democratic Reformist Front3.13 (-0.34)
The People’s Movement1.70 (-0.50)
Loyalist League1.69 (-0.55)
Other1.59 (+0.17)
Yorkshire Party1.19 (+0.14)
Plaid Cymru0.67 (-0.16)

If the General Election were held today, who would you vote for?

There will no doubt be a collective sigh of relief from the Conservative Party, who appear to have in-part shaken devolved election blues and disappointing November polling.

The proposed nationalisation of British Steel also seems to have done little to dent the rising support of the Labour Party. Yet some Labour supporters may be disappointed not to have beaten the Conservative Party for the first time since data was collected in 2017.

Yet the story for the Government is mixed, with support for Liberal Democrats and Classical Liberals waning, following a trend of decline for the latter. The Libertarian Party also has little to celebrate, whose long-held third party position seems to be under threat.

If the General Election were held today, who would you vote for?

Polling was also conducted in the South East and West. In the four constituencies polled, three have Conservative incumbents with Dorset represented by Labour Member of Parliament /u/Stalin1953. Yet it is the Conservatives who lead, with a joint Sunrise candidate beating strong campaigns from the Conservatives and Libertarians as a result of vote splitting last election.

Polling is provided by the Commons Speaker and may be considered canon.